Wednesday, September 1, 2021

Taliban's relations with China & Pak (Pt4)

In the previous blogs we have discussed about the Taliban's capturing of Kabul & Taliban's rule & one of the things which we discussed in the previous blog has come true as the executions have been done of the foreigner journalists, people who helped US for 20 years (interpreter of US was hanged from a chopper & the chopper which was used for hanging was US made Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk)
Now coming back to our topic which is Taliban's relations with China & Pak. It's a very common question & everyone would be having ideas based on it & you also might be knowing what things would look like. If I sum up in one sentence then the relationship between Taliban and China/Pak will deteriorate. So first let us discuss their relations with the Chinese. Taliban is a radical Islamic Terrorist group & China is a nation which considers Islam as a 'mental illness' that needs to be 'cured'. It's quite obvious how will their relationship be. But still Taliban currently needs money to run the government & only China is capable enough to provide them cheques of billions of dollars & as we discussed earlier, China has eyes on the natural resources of Afg which are worth more than $3Trillion & China has the capability to extract the resources so that they could take it with them (just like US) & give a share to Taliban. China and Taliban are also in talks to re start all the military equipments inc aircraft which US has left at Kabul airport in dismantled condition. But this doesn't mean that Taliban has forgotten the condition of Uygur Muslim (who are currently under concentration camps). Haqqani's (part of Taliban) has warned China in soft tone that China should take care of their minorities. In this statement what do you think whom is the Haqqani referring to? Ofcourse the Uygur Muslims. All this good Taliban & bad Taliban thing will end when Taliban will secure itself financially. After that we can expect Taliban will support East Turkestan Islamic Movement which would be disastrous for China. China will face long term consequences for their actions and relations with Taliban. But things are even worse for Pakistan. The Pashtoon Nationalism is already at it's peak but now it will rise more. TTP(Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan) which is a subset of Pashtoon movement & an allie of Taliban has increased attacks on Pak army. Taliban has also refused to recognise Durand line as the border between Afg-Pak. Taliban aims for 'Greater Afghanistan' which includes KPK province of Pakistan (the territory in the light green)
To achieve this TTP will play a key role. Even Balochistan (territory in purple) wants independence from Pak as it was forcefully annexed by Pak in 1947 & since then Balochistan wants independence & to suppress them Pak army has gone multiple genocides in Balochistan. Balochistan & KPK both are Pashtoon dominated regions and Taliban is comprised of 99% Pashtoons. So Baloch movement will get help from Taliban and BLA( Baloch Liberation Army) & BLF (Baloch Liberation Front) who are actively targeting Pak army will get support from Taliban. Pakistan expected that they would get a 'Strategic Depth' after the arrival of Taliban but they ended up giving 'Strategic Depth' to BLA, BLF, TTP, etc. There are reports that TTP has CAPTURED Ladha district of Waziristan as Pak army RAN after seeing TTP.

 Even Taliban has started targeting Pak soldiers at the Durand line. Many Pak soldiers have lost their life in last 1 week. Things are going to be even worse for Pak in near future & if we say that Pak would be divided in future then TTP, BLA and most importantly Taliban will play a crucial role in it.

That's it from my side please do let me know your views on this & in the next blog we will discuss Taliban's impact on India and the US factor which we didn't discuss today.

2 comments:

  1. Dear Mehar
    Your article shows astute understanding of regional politics in South Asia. But whether your prognosis turns true or not that time will tell. Keep up. God bless

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  2. Mehar..it seems you really have good knowledge on the subject..keep up the good work.. Keep posting..

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